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Deep Depression over Arabian Sea – Pre Cyclone Watch for Gujarat coast

A low pressure area formed over southeast Arabian Sea (AS) and adjoining Lakshadweep and eastcentral AS in the morning (0830 hrs IST) and became well marked low pressure area over the same region in the evening (1730 hrs IST) of 9th June, 2019. Under favourable environmental conditions, it intensified into a depression over the same region in the morning (0530 hrs IST) of today, the 10th June, 2019 near latitude 11.7°N and longitude 71.0°E. Moving north- northwestwards, it intensified into a deep depression at 1130 hrs IST and lay centered near latitude 12.5°N and longitude 70.9°E over eastcentral and adjoining southeast AS & Lakshadweep area, about 250 km northwest of Aminidivi (Lakshadweep), 760 km south-southwest of Mumbai (Maharashtra) and 930 km south-southeast of Veraval (Gujarat).

It is very likely to intensify further into a Cyclonic Storm during next 24 hours and into a Severe Cyclonic Storm in subsequent 24 hours. It is likely to move north-northwestwards during next 72 hours.

It is very likely to cause adverse impact in terms of wind & rainfall over Saurashtra & Kutch mainly on 13th & 14th June, 2019.
Forecast track and intensity are given in the following table:

Warnings:

1. Heavy rainfall warning:

Note: * Rainfall till 0830 IST of next day.
Legends: Yellow: Be Updated; Orange- Be prepared; Red- Take action, Green: No warning
Heavy rain: 64.5-115.5 mm/day; Very heavy rain: 115.6-204.4 mm/day; Extremely heavy rain: more than 204.4 mm/day

Wind warning

1. 10th June: Squally wind speed reaching 50-60 kmph gusting to 70 kmph very likely to prevail over Eastcentral and adjoining Southeast Arabian Sea & Lakshadweep area. The strong wind speed reaching 35-45 kmph gusting to 55 kmph very likely to prevail over Kerala & Karnataka Coasts.
2. 11th June: Wind speed is very likely to increase gradually and become gale wind speed reaching 65-75 kmph gusting to 85 kmph over eastcentral & adjoining southeast Arabian Sea. It is very likely to be 40-50 kmph gusting to 60 kmph over Lakshadweep area, Kerala, Karnataka & south Maharashtra Coasts.
3. 12th June: Wind speed is very likely to increase further becoming gale wind speed reaching 90- 100 kmph gusting to 115 kmph over eastcentral & adjoining northeast Arabian Sea. It is very likely to be 50-60 kmph gusting to 70 kmph over Gujarat Coast from 12th morning and become 65-75 kmph gusting to 85 kmph by 12th evening. It is very likely to be 50-60 kmph gusting to 70 kmph over Maharashtra Coast.
4. 13th June: Wind speed is very likely to increase further becomes 110-120 kmph gusting to 135 kmph over north Arabian Sea. It is very likely to be 65-75 kmph gusting to 85 kmph over Gujarat coast; and 50-60 kmph gusting to 70 kmph over north Maharashtra Coasts & northern parts of eastcentral Arabian Sea.

Sea condition

1. The sea condition is very likely to be rough to very rough over Southeast and adjoining Lakshadweep area & Eastcentral Arabian Sea on 10th and very rough to high over eastcentral & adjoining southeast Arabian Sea on 11th. The sea condition is very likely to be high to very high over eastcentral & adjoining northeast Arabian Sea on 12th and over north Arabian Sea on 13th June 2019.


2. The sea condition is very likely to be rough along & off Kerala & Karnataka Coasts on 10th; Lakshadweep area, along & off Kerala, Karnataka & south Maharashtra Coasts on 11th; rough to very rough along & off south Gujarat and Maharashtra Coasts on 12th; very rough to high over along & off Gujarat, north Maharashtra Coasts & northern parts of eastcentral Arabian Sea on 13th June, 2019.

Fishermen Warning

1. The fishermen are advised not to venture into Southeast Arabian Sea, Lakshadweep area, along & off Kerala and Karnataka on 10th & 11th; Eastcentral Arabian Sea and along & off Maharashtra  Coast on 11th & 12th; northeast Arabian sea and along & off Gujarat coast on 12th & 13th.
2. Those, who are out in deep sea areas are advised return to the coast.

Cyclonic Storm ‘VAYU’ over Eastcentral Arabian Sea: Cyclone Alert for Gujarat Coast

The Cyclonic Storm ‘VAYU’ (pronounced as VAA’YU) over Eastcentral Arabian Sea moved northwards with a speed of about 15 kmph in last six hours and lay centred at 0830 hrs IST of today, the 11th June, 2019 near latitude 15.0°N and longitude 70.6°E over Eastcentral Arabian Sea, about 350 km west-southwest of Goa, 510 km south-southwest of Mumbai (Maharashtra) and 650 km nearly south of Veraval (Gujarat). It is very likely to intensify further into a Severe Cyclonic Storm during next 12 hours.

It is very likely to move nearly northwards and cross Gujarat coast between Porbandar and Mahuva around Veraval & Diu region as a Severe Cyclonic Storm with wind speed 110-120 kmph gusting to 135 kmph during early morning of 13th June 2019.

Forecast track and intensity are given in the following table:

Date/Time(IST)

Position

(Lat. 0N/ long. 0E)

Maximum sustained surface wind speed (Kmph)

Category of cyclonic disturbance

11.06.19/0830

15.0/70.6

70-80 gusting to 90

11.06.19/1130

15.3/70.6

80-90 gusting to 100

11.06.19/1730

16.0/70.6

90-100 gusting to 115

11.06.19/2330

16.7/70.5

95-105 gusting to 120

12.06.19/0530

17.5/70.5

100-110 gusting to 125

12.06.19/1730

19.1/70.4

110-120 gusting to 135

13.06.19/0530

20.8/70.3

110-120 gusting to 135

13.06.19/1730

22.0/70.0

70-80 gusting to 90

14.06.19/0530

22.9/69.7

40-50 gusting to 60

14.06.19/1730

23.8/69.3

30-40 gusting to 50

Warnings:
(i) Heavy rainfall warning: 

Note: * Rainfall till 0830 IST of next day.
Legends: Yellow: Be Updated; Orange- Be prepared; Red- Take action, Green: No warning
Heavy rain: 64.5-115.5 mm/day; Very heavy rain: 115.6-204.4 mm/day; Extremely heavy rain: more than 204.4 mm/day

(ii) Wind warning

1. 11th June: Gale Wind speed reaching 70-80 kmph gusting to 90 kmph over Eastcentral Arabian Sea and 50-60 kmph gusting to 70 kmph along & off North Maharashtra coast  by 11th evening. It is very likely to be 40-50 kmph gusting to 60 kmph over Lakshadweep area, Kerala, Karnataka & south Maharashtra Coasts.
2. 12th June: Wind speed is very likely to increase further becoming gale wind speed reaching 110-120 kmph gusting to 135 kmph over eastcentral & adjoining northeast Arabian Sea by 12th night. It is very likely to be 60-70 kmph gusting to 80 kmph over Gujarat Coast from 12th morning and become gale wind speed reaching 110-120 kmph gusting to 135 kmph by 12th night. It is very likely to be 50-60 kmph gusting to 70 kmph over Maharashtra Coast.
3. 13th June:  Gale wind speed of the order of 110-120 kmph gusting to 135 kmph very likely over north Arabian Sea & Gujarat coast in morning hours and decrease gradually thereafter. It is very likely to be 50-60 kmph gusting to 70 kmph over north Maharashtra Coasts & northern parts of eastcentral Arabian Sea.

(iii) Sea condition

1. The Sea condition is very likely to be high to very high over eastcentral Arabian Sea on 11th. The sea condition is very likely to become very high to phenomenal over eastcentral & adjoining northeast Arabian Sea & Gujarat coast from 12th evening and over north Arabian Sea on 13th June 2019.
2. The sea condition is very likely to be rough over Lakshadweep area, along & off Kerala, Karnataka & south Maharashtra Coasts on 11th; rough to very rough along & off Maharashtra Coast on 12th; very rough to high along & off Gujarat, north Maharashtra Coasts & northern parts of eastcentral Arabian Sea on 13th June, 2019.

(iv) Fishermen Warning

1. The fishermen are advised not to venture into Southeast Arabian Sea, Lakshadweep area,  along & off Kerala and Karnataka coasts on 11th; Eastcentral Arabian Sea and along & off Maharashtra Coast on 11th & 12th; northeast Arabian sea and along & off Gujarat coast on 12th & 13th.

(v) Storm Surge Warning

Storm surge of height of about 1.0- 1.5 m above the astronomical tides likely to inundate the low lying coastal areas of Kutch, Devbhoomi Dwarka, Porbandar, Junagarh, Diu, Gir Somnath, Amreli and Bhavnagar districts at the time of landfall.

(vi) Damage Expected and Action suggested for Kutch, Devbhoomi Dwarka, Porbandar, Junagarh, Diu, Gir Somnath, Amreli and Bhavnagar districts of Gujarat:

(i) Major damage to thatched houses/ huts. Roof tops may blow off. Unattached metal sheets may fly. (ii) Minor damage to power and communication lines. (iii)           Major damage to Kutcha and some damage to Pucca roads. Flooding of escape routes. (iv) Breaking of tree branches, uprooting of large avenue trees. Moderate damage to banana and papaya trees. Large dead limbs blown from trees. (v) Major damage to coastal crops. (vi) Damage to embankments/ salt pans.

Action suggested:
Total suspension of fishing operations. (ii) Coastal hutment dwellers to be moved to safer places. People in affected areas to remain indoors. (iii) Movement in motor boats unsafe.