Research Projects

Under this project an Advanced Glacier Energy and Mass Balance Model (AGEMBM) will be developed using remote sensing data for areas that are remote, difficult to access, and lacking in observed data. Although several open-source glacier models are already available, such as GEMB (Glacier Energy and Mass Balance), COSIMA (Coupled Snowpack and Ice Surface Energy and Mass Balance), PyGDM (PCRaster Python Glaciohydrological Degree-Day Model), HIMALA BASINS, and SPHY RF (Spatial Processes in Hydrology with Random Forest), each comes with certain limitations. Some demand a high level of programming skill to use, while others overlook key elements like melt from debris-covered ice. A number of them also lack capabilities such as simulating glacier area changes, estimating glacier melt runoff at the snout, or automatic calibration capability when field data is unavailable. In contrast, the proposed AGEMBM will overcome these limitations by offering a regionally adjustable, user-friendly, and computationally effective method for simulating key glacier components. It will simulate glacier mass balances, surface area changes, and melt runoff on a daily basis using basic meteorological data. It will include both empirical and physically based approaches for melt calculation by also taking into account the melt from debris-covered ice, thus offering a comprehensive approach for assessing melt dynamics. The proposed Advanced Glacier Energy and Mass Balance Model will be a GUI-based conceptual model to simulate glacier mass balance components (mass loss, melt rate, accumulation rate, evaporation rate and sublimation rate), surface area changes and glacier melt runoff at snout using various meteorological input parameters. Its Graphical User Interface (GUI) will be created using Microsoft Visual Studio (a window-based integrated development environment), and its code will be written using the VB.NET programming language. This interface enables the user to provide input data and perform the simulation process easily without any coding or using command-line prompts. Whereas, many of the existing glacier models, such as GEMB, COSIMA, and PyGDM employ scripts in Python, MATLAB or any other such platform for simulation, which limit their utility and access to non-experts, local agencies and people who don’t have any prior knowledge or experience of programming. Thus, the developed GUI significantly improve the model’s accessibility and offers a simple and effective means for users to interact with it for various glacier-related simulations. Developed model will be calibrated and validated using field observations of Khangri glacier of Mago river basin. Following calibration and validation, the model will be applied to selected glaciers in Arunachal Pradesh. Glacier melt module will be calibrated by comparing model simulated glacier melt runoff with field observation by isotope analysis. Mass balance module of the model will be calibrated by comparing with field based glaciological mass balance of selected glaciers. Spatial and temporal changes in the mass balance of selected glaciers in the Arunachal Pradesh will be evaluated using the developed model. The glacier SMB (specific mass balance) of selected glaciers, for the future years will be computed using developed model, based on bias-corrected projected data from selected Global Climate Models as well as their ensemble mean. For the ensemble mean, two approaches (Input ensemble and Output ensemble) will be adopted. For input ensemble, the mean of the input data from all GCMs will be calculated and used as input to estimate future mass balance. However, Output Ensemble will be calculated by taking the simple mean of all projected mass balance outputs derived using each GCM model. The developed model aims to provide an efficient and cost-effective tool for glacier monitoring and to generate meaningful insights for glaciological research and resource management in remote mountainous regions.