Himalayan Cryosphere in a Changing Climate: An Integrated Assessment of Glacier Dynamics, Climate change impacts, Black Carbon Influence, and Hydrological Shifts for Ensuring Water Security in the Indus Basin
Islamic University Of Science & Technology University
shakilrom@kashmiruniversity.ac.in
Project Overview
The Himalayan cryosphere plays a critical role in sustaining major river basins like the Indus. However, glacier loss is accelerating due to climate change and black carbon (BC) deposition, threatening long-term water security. While existing studies address aspects of glacier mass loss and climate variability, key gaps remain in understanding the complex and interconnected impacts of climate change, BC-induced albedo reduction, glacier response, and associated hydrological shifts. This project aims to fill these gaps through an integrated, multidisciplinary approach, combining remote sensing, field observations, modeling, and policy engagement. The central hypothesis is that glacier loss in the Himalaya, while driven by climate change, is significantly amplified by BC deposition, accelerating melt and disrupting downstream hydrology, agriculture, hydropower and domestic water supply. The Principal Investigator has over 30 years of research experience in glaciology, hydrology, and climate interactions in the Himalayan region. Over this period, the PI has built a rich repository of field-based and satellite-derived observations covering glacier dynamics, snow and ice melt processes, hydrometeorological measurements, BC concentrations and related environmental variables across the Indus Basin. This comprehensive, high-resolution dataset will serve as the empirical foundation for the proposed research under the J C Bose project. The study will focus on four key areas: (i) Glacier dynamics and climate change impacts, (ii) BC deposition and its effect on snow and glacier melt, (iii) Hydrological shifts in glacier-fed river systems, and (iv) Policy inputs for climate adaptation and resilience. To accomplish the identified objectives, the proposed research will use the Open Global Glacier Model, a BC-induced albedo reduction model, and an integrated climate-glacier-hydrology model to simulate system responses. Data sources include Sentinel-2, ICESat-2, GPS, AWS, GPR, UAV, TOR spectroscopy, and HYSPLIT-WRF-Chem for BC transport analysis. The SPHY model will project long-term streamflow changes, while stakeholder workshops will help translate findings into actionable strategies. Furthermore, a data-sharing platform will be developed to provide open access to the glacier, hydrology and climate data for Indian researchers having interest in the subject. This project will deliver improved understanding of glacier mass balance, quantify BC's role in accelerating glacier melt, analyze shifts in hydrological patterns in the basin ending 21st Century and inform evidence-based robust adaptation strategies to support water security and regional climate resilience in the Indus basin. By integrating decades of field experience, a unique data repository, and advanced modeling techniques, the project will lead to development of long-term strategies for the Himalayan cryosphere and contribute meaningfully to regional and global climate and water governance frameworks.