Research Projects

India is one of the most flood-prone countries globally, yet national-scale flood vulnerability assessments that holistically integrate social, economic, institutional, and physical drivers remain scarce. This project aims to develop high-resolution (1 km) flood vulnerability and risk maps for India using interpretable machine learning techniques. We hypothesize that spatial patterns of flood vulnerability are driven by complex interactions among socio-economic conditions (e.g., poverty, health access), physical exposure (e.g., land use, hydrology), and institutional capacity (e.g., governance metrics), and that existing Probable Maximum Flood (PMF) standards may not adequately reflect vulnerabilities in dam-adjacent regions. To test this, we will compile a harmonized database comprising historical flood events (Central Water Commission records, INDOFLOODS), census and survey data (Census 2011, NFHS), infrastructure layers (roads, hospitals, schools), governance indices (NITI Aayog metrics), land use, catchment hydrology, and other relevant vulnerability influencing indicators. In addition, vulnerability will be linked to critical infrastructure, particularly dams and reservoirs, to help identify which dam sites are more prone to extreme flood impacts and whether current PMF assumptions align with observed vulnerabilities. We will employ interpretable machine learning algorithms such as SHAP and partial dependence to quantify and visualize the contribution of each driver (such as poverty rate, access to healthcare, drainage density, and governance quality), cross-validation across different geographic zones, and sensitivity analysis to test model stability. The key outputs will be open-access flood vulnerability and risk maps across India, identification of highly vulnerable regions and infrastructure, and policy insights to support equitable disaster management. This work will advance the scientific understanding of multi-dimensional flood risk and provide actionable tools and insights to advance equitable disaster management in line with India’s National Disaster Management Plan and the Sustainable Development Goals.