Research Projects

The proposed research aims to investigate the interactions between marine heatwaves (MHWs) and tropical cyclones (TCs), focusing on their compound extreme events in the Bay of Bengal. These compound extreme events are of significant concern due to their potential to exacerbate socio-economic vulnerabilities, particularly in coastal regions. As climate change intensifies the frequency and severity of MHWs and TCs globally, understanding the coupled ocean-atmospheric processes that facilitate the compounding of these extreme events becomes crucial. This research seeks to provide critical insights into how MHWs influence cyclone intensity, track, and precipitation patterns, thereby improving disaster preparedness and response strategies in vulnerable regions. The specific scientific objectives of this research are: (1) to identify and quantify the coupled ocean-atmospheric processes that facilitate the occurrence and intensity of compound extreme events of MHWs and TCs in the Bay of Bengal; (2) to examine the role of subsurface ocean dynamics in the development and intensification of these compound extreme events; and (3) to project long-term changes in the frequency and intensity of MHWs in the North Indian Ocean using CMIP6 and Large Ensemble Model Simulations under different climate change scenarios. The hypothesis to be tested is that coupled ocean-atmospheric processes, including subsurface ocean dynamics, significantly enhance the occurrence and intensity of compound extreme events involving MHWs and TCs in the Bay of Bengal. Specifically, the hypothesis posits that the thermal anomalies associated with MHWs interact with cyclonic activity to amplify both the frequency and intensity of these compound events, affecting coastal communities' socio-economic resilience. The main experiments will combine detailed analysis of observational data, including satellite-based SST, in situ oceanographic measurements, and cyclone tracking data, with ocean-atmosphere coupled models output. This will examine the role of subsurface ocean dynamics, MHW-TC interactions, and their influence on cyclone intensity and behavior. The study will also include statistical analysis and future projections using CMIP6 models to assess long-term MHW trends in the Bay of Bengal and the North Indian Ocean. The significance of this research is to enhance the understanding of compound extreme events in the context of climate change, informing adaptive frameworks and resilience strategies for coastal economies. It will provide critical insights for policy-makers and disaster management, contributing to global knowledge on MHW-TC interactions and their socio-economic impacts, and guiding future research.