Research Projects

This project is aimed to deliver a state of the art modeling framework for the operational probabilistic forecast of lightning associated with convective storms. In the present scenario of increasing incidences of lightning from severe weather systems and associated casualties, development of a prediction system for thunderstorms and associated lightning flashes is the need of the hour. Two different approaches will be adopted. The first is through a cloud- resolving numerical modelling strategy where improved initial and boundary conditions from the Global Forecast System (GFS) and Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) will be used to drive ensembles of the Weather Research Forecast (WRF) model in cloud resolving scale. Probabilistic forecasts of lightning will be generated based on the Lightning Potential Index (LPI) that depends on simulated vertical velocity and hydrometeors. Secondly, an innovative method of dynamical-statistical forecasting will be designed based on the relationship of model derived storm parameters and observed lightning flashes.