Research Projects

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are transient plumes of intense horizontal moisture transport in the lower troposphere, responsible for over 90% of the total poleward moisture flux. They have significant socio-economic impacts, especially in orographically active regions where forced saturated ascent often results in heavy rains and snowfall. ARs are essential sources of regional water supply but also cause catastrophic winds and flooding. Recent research has shown that major floods in India, such as the 2018 August flood in Kerela and the 2013 June flood in Uttarakhand, were associated with ARs. The hydrology of the Himalayas is crucial for AR forecasting, and efforts have been made worldwide to forecast ARs. This proposal aims to evaluate numerical weather prediction models for short-term AR forecasting, develop models for sub-seasonal forecasting, identify predictability sources for seasonal-scale forecasting, and develop statistical models for seasonal AR forecasting. The project aims to improve early warning systems for floods, improve understanding of atmospheric dynamics relevant to Himalayan hydrology, predict snow and glacier dynamics in mountain ranges, and improve models used for sub-seasonal and seasonal forecasting in India.