Research Projects

The increasing frequency of tropical cyclones in the northern Indian Ocean (NIO) has significantly impacted socio-economic aspects of coastal regions in India. However, the underlying mechanism and risk assessment for these extreme events are not well documented in existing literature. This presents a challenge for science and policy. The study focuses on understanding remote teleconnections, which control wind shear dynamics and cyclones from observations. It employs graphical-based causal effect networks to gain a deeper understanding of the physical mechanism. Numerical model experiments will be performed using a Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) model. The relevance of identified physical linkages for future cyclone projections will be demonstrated using state-of-the-art climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6). After proper understanding of the hazard (cyclones), the comprehensive assessment of risk to coastal regions will be performed using a definition of IPCC AR5 and appropriate selection of indicators for individual components of risk (hazard, vulnerability, and exposure). Vulnerability and exposure indicators will be collected from Census of India and world bank reports, particularly HDI and GDP data. Risk maps for both historical and future scenarios will be generated using a multi-attribute decision-making method. This approach will help constrain CMIP6 models and reduce uncertainty in future projections.