Research Projects

The increasing intensity of tropical cyclones (TCs) over the Arabian Sea (AS) is leading to severe economic losses and lives due to strong winds, heavy rainfall, landslides, and storm surges. A study by Murakami et al. (2017) suggested that intense TCs over the AS are increasing in a warming climate. The AS basin is more important due to the increasing frequency of TCs, such as the simultaneous occurrence of super cyclone Kyarr and extremely severe cyclone Maha in 2019 and Luban and Titli in 2018. To provide accurate forecasts of severe TCs over the AS, comprehensive studies in numerical modeling systems at the gray zone using physical parameterization schemes, data assimilation, and coupling of atmosphere and ocean models are needed. The proposal is based on numerical experiments, including domain resolutions (1 km to 5 km) in double and triple nested domains, parameterization of microphysics, PBL, and air-sea flux and convection, and the impact of initial conditions from different data sources. The role of 3DVAR/4DVAR data assimilation will also be investigated for forecasting precipitation associated with severe TCs during landfall. Observations assimilated in the modeling system will include conventional and satellite observations, including INSAT-3D. The prediction of intensity and thermodynamical features of the storm will improve with the initialization of oceanic environments such as mixed layer depth, ocean temperature, and salinity. The WRF model will be coupled with the ocean mixed layer model, initializing parameters like temperature, salinity, and depth up to 300m.